Olympics · resolved market

Will Johannes Dale-Skjevdal (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44b47b557aafe99c5522006a2fc023e2f027cc7eecfa1e3dbd4a98158f7d7ff1

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,974
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,974 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5c0b…17c3backed No	5c	2,500$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x359f…fa80backed No	3c	1,800$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	42	7.1%3 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+25%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Yes	64c	832.63$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.63	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	+5.3wins	+0.17per pick	46cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	27c	397.81$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.23	69	42%29 W · 40 L	+7.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd20c…2a96backed Yes	7c	350.9$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$324.95	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.93per pick	7cpaid	+1,252.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cea…18a2backed Yes	10c	153.92$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.14	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.90per pick	10cpaid	+941.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb598…a2b2backed Yes	17c	148.04$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.04	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+196.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	18c	109.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	+6.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf934…8858backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	26cpaid	+104.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd7c…c170backed Yes	64c	53.33$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+61%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06b0…afd6backed No	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4970…13d6backed No	55c	36.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df7…522dbacked No	43c	25.01$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.21per pick	65cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9be9…c030backed No	58c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.57	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Johannes Dale-Skjevdal (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event