Lol · resolved market

LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d7e165810daec6849739bca788e4c2fcb662a89b2b7b5cabf916275d8f2bdbd

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: EXILE esportsof EXILE esports, Onion Team
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $22,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $26,505

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,729 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6918…782bbacked EXILE esports	58c	2,763$1,603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,160.01	1,501	54.5%818 W · 683 L	+34.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked EXILE esports	60c	2,570$1,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020.31	1,485	50.1%744 W · 741 L	+67.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ef…88a4backed EXILE esports	50c	1,737$868 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$868.28	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed EXILE esports	50c	1,650$825 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$825.15	403	70.2%283 W · 120 L	+31.3wins	+0.08per pick	62cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed EXILE esports	62c	1,335$828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.32	115	67.8%78 W · 37 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed EXILE esports	59c	1,210$718 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$492.37	1,310	37.3%489 W · 821 L	-86.3wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Onion Team	47c	1,156$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.71	545	29.7%162 W · 383 L	-34.7wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Onion Team	38c	1,126$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.42	644	43%277 W · 367 L	-27.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b6…e0a0backed Onion Team	45c	1,106$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.75	92	39.1%36 W · 56 L	-11.2wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1727…680ebacked Onion Team	49c	1,047$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.01	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Onion Team	40c	988.5$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.4	438	39.7%174 W · 264 L	-24.3wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaefa…86f5backed Onion Team	50c	966.49$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed EXILE esports	51c	948.1$484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$464.57	1,477	48.3%713 W · 764 L	+45.1wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c3f…f75dbacked EXILE esports	78c	773.38$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.38	191	51.8%99 W · 92 L	+12.7wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Onion Team	38c	709.95$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.53	2,226	37.5%834 W · 1,392 L	-29.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed EXILE esports	56c	700$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308	594	50.2%298 W · 296 L	+6.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed Onion Team	38c	646$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.04	154	31.8%49 W · 105 L	-18.7wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed Onion Team	39c	603$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.66	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-7.8wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14fa…5258backed Onion Team	44c	601.34$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.52	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-47%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Onion Team	39c	512.82$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	808	32.9%266 W · 542 L	-43.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Onion Team	37c	511.89$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.83	282	40.4%114 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Onion Team	48c	441.52$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.3	230	47%108 W · 122 L	-15.1wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Onion Team	43c	436.54$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189	187	42.8%80 W · 107 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed EXILE esports	53c	424.64$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.58	2,156	53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L	+57.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x546a…36fdbacked Onion Team	47c	414$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.58	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed EXILE esports	51c	389.08$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.65	698	41.8%292 W · 406 L	+46.3wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked Onion Team	39c	360.03$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.41	108	31.5%34 W · 74 L	-10.5wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e6f…3be7backed Onion Team	43c	332.04$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	86	41.9%36 W · 50 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbba…c191backed Onion Team	37c	323.79$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.4	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed EXILE esports	62c	322.15$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.15	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Onion Team	25c	274.89$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.04	181	39.2%71 W · 110 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Onion Team	39c	256.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	905	37.5%339 W · 566 L	-18.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Onion Team	42c	249.57$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.47	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7899…cdfebacked Onion Team	44c	231.24$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.75	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-29%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Onion Team	40c	217.03$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.07	145	45.5%66 W · 79 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ac0…b510backed Onion Team	50c	213.4$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.7	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaabb…2b32backed Onion Team	50c	201.27$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.64	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9095…b6cbbacked Onion Team	38c	200$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	45	40%18 W · 27 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked EXILE esports	51c	190.31$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.25	1,443	43.4%626 W · 817 L	+105.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked EXILE esports	64c	173.09$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.24	70	62.9%44 W · 26 L	+7.3wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Onion Team	46c	167.74$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.24	390	44.6%174 W · 216 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb22a…a80dbacked EXILE esports	55c	163.56$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.93	71	57.7%41 W · 30 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed EXILE esports	60c	159.3$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.76	1,643	44.4%730 W · 913 L	-42.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Onion Team	40c	156.08$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	256	40.6%104 W · 152 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56fa…2b82backed Onion Team	50c	129.01$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.51	50	52%26 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6af0…fea7backed Onion Team	50c	126.1$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.05	101	57.4%58 W · 43 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10cf…60cfbacked Onion Team	50c	126.1$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.05	89	43.8%39 W · 50 L	-5.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed EXILE esports	61c	125.3$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.55	360	47.5%171 W · 189 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d87…3f74backed Onion Team	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda30…1d71backed Onion Team	50c	124.49$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.24	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Onion Team	39c	110$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	1,241	34.7%431 W · 810 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Onion Team	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	242	35.5%86 W · 156 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Onion Team	45c	105.34$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.8	107	48.6%52 W · 55 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Onion Team	24c	101.28$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.33	2,825	41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L	-14.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed EXILE esports	56c	82.29$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	144	50.7%73 W · 71 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024a…35a3backed Onion Team	40c	55$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4350…4bbabacked EXILE esports	63c	51.36$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	79	77.2%61 W · 18 L	+8.3wins	+0.10per pick	67cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked EXILE esports	62c	48.79$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.54	924	50.9%470 W · 454 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…a5d4backed EXILE esports	63c	47.62$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.62	62	59.7%37 W · 25 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d28…87b5backed EXILE esports	51c	47.58$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.31	65	69.2%45 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	66cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Onion Team	50c	40.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.37	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Onion Team	38c	35.48$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	1,308	38.6%505 W · 803 L	-64.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c38…fd63backed EXILE esports	55c	34.41$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.49	95	64.2%61 W · 34 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b74…cbaebacked EXILE esports	63c	34.28$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	162	54.3%88 W · 74 L	+7.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed EXILE esports	67c	31.97$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.46	227	58.1%132 W · 95 L	+10.7wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ec…052dbacked EXILE esports	51c	31.88$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.62	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.12per pick	62cpaid	+14%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c27…21a9backed Onion Team	39c	27.79$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	143	58.7%84 W · 59 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked EXILE esports	49c	26.59$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.56	474	44.1%209 W · 265 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7174…9874backed Onion Team	51c	25.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4698…9b1ebacked EXILE esports	70c	25.63$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.69	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Onion Team	41c	25.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	302	47%142 W · 160 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed EXILE esports	59c	22.56$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.29	1,576	48.4%763 W · 813 L	+17.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…6471backed EXILE esports	61c	21.48$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.43	134	73.9%99 W · 35 L	+13.8wins	+0.10per pick	64cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe26b…a9ecbacked EXILE esports	69c	16.59$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.1	520	49.2%256 W · 264 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Seasonthis page
Game Handicap: EXE (-1.5) vs Onion Team (+1.5)Onion Team won
LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team - Game 1 WinnerEXILE esports won
LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team - Game 2 WinnerOnion Team won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

LoL: EXILE esports vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event