Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Joe Strada be the FL-11 Republican nominee?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b86df564913dac60c3f633dc25fc80394615f79b44a9ad4c7b36bb5963aebb9

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,049

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,437 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	66c	2,039$1,345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$693.84	368	34.2%126 W · 242 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes	75c	900$671 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.61	158	56.3%89 W · 69 L	+20.1wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	69c	783.72$538 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.88	354	34.7%123 W · 231 L	-13.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-34%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes	77c	699.94$542 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.11	79	49.4%39 W · 40 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes	76c	642.51$487 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.08	60	41.7%25 W · 35 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+84.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes	75c	600$447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd12f…e85abacked Yes	58c	596.63$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$247.75	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	27c	324.64$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.1	131	48.1%63 W · 68 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No	25c	323.69$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.12	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked Yes	64c	316.41$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.91	41	73.2%30 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	70cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	10c	310$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	214	31.3%67 W · 147 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No	8c	293.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.31	97	48.5%47 W · 50 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	34c	286.95$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.32	378	22.2%84 W · 294 L	-28.4wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes	67c	282.25$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.14	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-37%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No	19c	271$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.59	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes	61c	270$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+64.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	33c	257.38$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.01	127	23.6%30 W · 97 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	75c	250.95$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.15	364	40.1%146 W · 218 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes	66c	250.38$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.48	78	44.9%35 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes	65c	250$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.5	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	21c	244.57$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.4	122	38.5%47 W · 75 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No	36c	233.88$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.28	135	51.1%69 W · 66 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed No	24c	209.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	25c	205.1$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.12	291	34.4%100 W · 191 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No	35c	204$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.41	184	29.9%55 W · 129 L	-9.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1aa…964bbacked No	32c	200$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	21c	196.09$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.28	209	39.2%82 W · 127 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No	27c	188.29$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.48	127	43.3%55 W · 72 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No	34c	170$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.43	57	52.6%30 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No	37c	155$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.15	112	41.1%46 W · 66 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes	77c	152.76$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.49	69	40.6%28 W · 41 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	-14%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No	42c	151.81$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.76	104	39.4%41 W · 63 L	+6.3wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41bb…2eb6backed Yes	76c	126.68$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No	24c	126.65$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.98	171	32.2%55 W · 116 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No	26c	106.04$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.05	68	47.1%32 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e6…c078backed No	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-49%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	106	44.3%47 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No	36c	90$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.16	60	56.7%34 W · 26 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	71c	87.2$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.86	124	33.1%41 W · 83 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No	22c	85$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	59	57.6%34 W · 25 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No	24c	83.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.21	123	44.7%55 W · 68 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No	31c	83$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.73	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes	65c	82$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	99	32.3%32 W · 67 L	-9.4wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc09b…38e2backed No	36c	80$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed No	35c	74.29$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	34c	74$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.52	226	33.2%75 W · 151 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes	68c	73.79$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.61	51	37.3%19 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	24c	71.26$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.11	203	42.4%86 W · 117 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf44…74d8backed Yes	71c	70.42$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.42	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No	35c	70$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	145	43.4%63 W · 82 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes	68c	69.67$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	159	45.3%72 W · 87 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked No	25c	68.66$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.17	56	30.4%17 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e4…d097backed Yes	76c	65.79$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.79	14	85.7%12 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.15per pick	70cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No	25c	64.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No	25c	60.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeb5…69d3backed Yes	64c	60$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.8	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x018a…9522backed No	38c	57.36$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.86	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes	67c	53.74$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.75	89	59.6%53 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe56b…6105backed No	29c	50.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccad…46ecbacked No	24c	50.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	26cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x571c…b9f9backed No	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x180e…838abacked No	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No	37c	48.81$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x321e…9292backed Yes	65c	44.39$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.53	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+3.6wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+58%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6dc…2646backed No	35c	41$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.35	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd832…67e0backed No	26c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No	27c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	133	48.9%65 W · 68 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4866…131fbacked No	33c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d3…e307backed No	41c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No	37c	40$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…9aeabacked No	37c	40$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x700e…872ebacked No	26c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff1…1be9backed Yes	76c	35.7$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.62	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	75cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No	42c	35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	81	28.4%23 W · 58 L	-8.4wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No	37c	34.47$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes	77c	32$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.36	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+20%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed Yes	74c	28.01$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.41	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b01…fb11backed Yes	62c	27.62$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.41	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes	79c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.25	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed Yes	63c	23.44$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.71	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf48…1751backed Yes	58c	22.13$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.29	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed Yes	63c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.77	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	67c	20.6$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.7	736	15.1%111 W · 625 L	-113.3wins	-0.15per pick	30cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes	63c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11b5…8c02backed Yes	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87c0…0eddbacked Yes	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed Yes	74c	17.9$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.65	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes	77c	17.8$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.09	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	68c	15.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.12	106	34%36 W · 70 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d9…3c9bbacked Yes	69c	15.94$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.94	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+39%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x546a…1988backed Yes	71c	15.08$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.37	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Joe Strada be the FL-11 Republican nominee?this page
Will Carey Baker be the FL-11 Republican nominee?No won
Will Tim Wilkins be the FL-11 Republican nominee?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Joe Strada be the FL-11 Republican nominee?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event