Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Carey Baker be the FL-11 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5dfbe88c5de52be50482bc4a6375b3e5c29a1672e959e5b49ac62f63f4a1b68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 72c | 1,140$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.13 | 368 | 34.2%126 W · 242 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 16c | 693.63$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.61 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 29c | 606.23$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.81 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 30c | 414.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 400$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 354 | 34.7%123 W · 231 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 214 | 31.3%67 W · 147 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 28c | 395.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 386.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 378 | 22.2%84 W · 294 L | -28.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 339.73$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 78c | 320$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 26c | 299.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 285$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 203 | 42.4%86 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 276.24$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 27c | 247.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 244.57$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 13c | 220$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 24c | 216.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 28c | 210$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 196.64$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 209 | 39.2%82 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 73c | 174$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 184 | 29.9%55 W · 129 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 71c | 162$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 148.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 127 | 23.6%30 W · 97 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 22c | 148.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 76c | 140.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 736 | 15.1%111 W · 625 L | -113.3wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 135.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 76c | 131.88$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 122$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 490 | 36.7%180 W · 310 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 21c | 120.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 114$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 543 | 12%65 W · 478 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 107.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 106.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 24c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 226 | 33.2%75 W · 151 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 80.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 78c | 76.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…0c1fbacked Yes | 23c | 72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 71c | 58.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed Yes | 24c | 53.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 77c | 50.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 74c | 48.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 29c | 48.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 46.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 46.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…838abacked No | 73c | 41.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 30c | 41.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7b…332dbacked No | 73c | 41.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Yes | 35c | 41.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…d61ebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…872ebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842e…50abbacked No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…146abacked No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 28c | 35.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 32.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 30.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 102 | 78.4%80 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…724cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4327…d594backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 78c | 14.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carey Baker be the FL-11 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Joe Strada be the FL-11 Republican nominee?Yes won
- Will Tim Wilkins be the FL-11 Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.