https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x4866465869555e2523c14fcac359d70ecee0131f
The Watchlist is not built yet, so that button does nothing on purpose.
Rebuilt .
Tailer profilescored on resolved markets · held to resolution
Where its weight is
NBA
7 of its 13 qualified picks
Above the line at 0.00 per pick.
See the full NBA boardIts best Category
Dota2
its best of 7 Categories scored
Above the line at +0.01 per pick.
See the full Dota2 board2 below 50 · 5 at or above · 7 Categories scored
- Qualified picks
- 13
- Categories scored
- 7
- Categories below 50
- 2
Best Category: Dota2, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).
Best Category Dota2 at 51 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 48.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.
Record by Category7 Categories
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Dota2last resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Movieslast resolved Aug 27, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
What this wallet holds right now
TailMyPicks does not watch what 0x4866…131f is holding. Live positions are read for the strongest fifty wallets in each category, and this one is not among them — so this is we have not looked, not there is nothing there. Its record above is unaffected: that is rebuilt from resolved markets and does not depend on this. You can see what the wallets we do watch are buying on the tail feed.
These figures and the record above never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.