Dota2 · resolved market
Will valve announce Arjun as the new hero at The International 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6b3d71713707439cbf969a7d48d04f9a423987b1753b76f47d721bff5519548
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb146…63afbacked Yes | 30c | 1,592$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc6…1ec0backed Yes | 25c | 1,161$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 61c | 1,012$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.48 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 26c | 1,008$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…7834backed Yes | 33c | 672.25$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 593$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 387.97$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 378.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 329$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 20c | 316.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 249.97$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 20c | 242.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 235.71$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b81…b9fbbacked Yes | 41c | 200.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -72%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x676b…abc2backed Yes | 19c | 171.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 44c | 140$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 42c | 139.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 124$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Yes | 23c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 569 | 48.7%277 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +246.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8177backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 97.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 40c | 94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…83e1backed Yes | 33c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 73c | 90.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 40c | 81.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 387 | 32.8%127 W · 260 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 35c | 76.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 31c | 74.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed Yes | 45c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked No | 62c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 51c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 78c | 65.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…1b8ebacked Yes | 20c | 65.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 228 | 39.5%90 W · 138 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 62.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…18cfbacked Yes | 28c | 55.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 454 | 70.7%321 W · 133 L | +26.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…7f3bbacked Yes | 36c | 49.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 37c | 40.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…0c06backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4866…131fbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…3a6cbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 71c | 37.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be3…6f63backed Yes | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 27.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…0b98backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7821…9855backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will valve announce Arjun as the new hero at The International 2026?this page
- Will valve announce Any different hero as the new hero at The International 2026?No won
- Will valve announce no hero as the new hero at The International 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.