Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5e81ed4505222492089b249b90ae7cc57b8232bb8b627902496bddc8679c94a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 57c | 3,194$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.89 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 43c | 1,840$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…cb2abacked Yes | 42c | 595.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 221$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 42c | 200.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…3aacbacked Yes | 41c | 112.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…9597backed Yes | 43c | 101.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…fa93backed Yes | 43c | 98.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87b2…0653backed Yes | 43c | 89.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…f51cbacked Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 43c | 35.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…8e30backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%?this page
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 2.5%?No won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.5%?No won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?No won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?No won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Yes won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than -0.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.