Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99285cb79c85086cff29e78f5fca5b48c27a0311b826ec85ca460cf11654e6ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 21c | 618.08$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.9 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc0…12e6backed Yes | 55c | 494.6$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.58 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…8a45backed Yes | 8c | 473$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +244.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6f4abacked Yes | 37c | 430.74$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +171.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…a273backed Yes | 19c | 265.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +217%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 250$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 207.48$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.39 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 204.71$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 185.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 62c | 151.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 90$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 86.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 40c | 49.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 43.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?this page
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 2.5%?No won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%?No won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.5%?No won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?No won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?No won
- Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than -0.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.