TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,094 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9214…a803backed Yes35c4,150$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.223243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No63c2,523$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.44436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes30c2,020$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.952433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No53c1,733$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.516737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed Yes62c1,470$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.753568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes75c1,311$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-66.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes67c1,167$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.4118746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes33c1,045$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.8432739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes27c1,037$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.9629423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No72c1,003$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.834560%27 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd9…1024backed Yes75c992.8$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.65234.6%18 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No66c895.62$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.8610436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes6c739.52$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2713735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3344…56c4backed Yes10c728.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.43148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No29c716.99$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.3529642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c675.03$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.778225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes43c630$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.811633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes67c598$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.829735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c518.71$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.7912442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No37c512.29$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.461050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf508…30a5backed Yes37c471.43$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.451855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952d…ab8abacked Yes32c445.88$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce8…6414backed Yes4c418.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No33c364.35$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.178638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2330…ed99backed Yes55c343.93$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.442560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb59…d1a7backed Yes26c311.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c300$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14847328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xca12…ea03backed Yes14c296.35$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.573066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+88.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes45c290.7$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8523639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No39c285$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.85837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9183…c349backed Yes67c267.45$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c248.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.523130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No51c246$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.4610645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5de7…540cbacked Yes9c232.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes44c229.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4913119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c228.27$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3987033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1214…ebecbacked Yes5c222.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.224918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-41.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes40c221$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9323321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6408…d5c6backed Yes7c215.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92313.2%1 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-83.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes52c214.21$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.715149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No58c213$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.465147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked No35c200$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No66c199.17$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2611924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No37c197.67$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3710339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No37c185$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.056446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No60c165$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.416747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes68c147.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes15c143.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.412030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No59c128.25$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.563636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No66c127.12$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.64645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No22c124.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5811129.7%33 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes22c124$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.281030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-57.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x253d…1a28backed No55c115$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392520%5 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf697…c72cbacked Yes60c93.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.93625%9 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3387…c3f7backed Yes69c93.19$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.131346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No40c85$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed Yes14c75.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No71c75.09$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.73748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes71c72.43$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.423043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes73c71.94$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.825042%21 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No69c67.75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.823557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes71c63.76$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.036150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477e…23b3backed Yes62c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed Yes34c59.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a68…33bfbacked No34c58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes43c57.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7916015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes68c53.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.335339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes39c52.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6b…cf5ebacked No58c50.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fd…15a0backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No33c48.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.584252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No70c48.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.382962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7230…f3d0backed No57c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.25933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdad7…005abacked Yes54c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.35633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked Yes64c43.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.54714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No35c39.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.485251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0278…bff4backed No66c37.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.92572%18 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No74c37.19$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.673046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes66c36.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.021936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No74c35.11$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.133545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes33c33.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110814.8%16 W · 92 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.38653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No60c25.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.113748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe31…a6a2backed Yes60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No79c24.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1411184.7%94 W · 17 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick74cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90f2…ef25backed No63c23.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.89951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No78c21.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.773545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146a…8108backed No58c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No67c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.932623.1%6 W · 20 L-5.7wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-53.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x15e1…1b3dbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e2…d8b0backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfbc…85c6backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x239f…8b82backed Yes63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61540%6 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d4d…6891backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c60…9536backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd00…d1afbacked No71c14.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.