Movies · resolved market
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0f9642bdd4c6404bfec36a92f8307110485899081e29d6e80aa1ff2998bbd7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 10c | 2,220$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.12 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 4c | 978.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 80c | 707$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.88 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 7c | 480.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 337.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 29c | 233.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 32c | 226$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 17c | 201.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 142.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bb…24b7backed Yes | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked No | 75c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m?this page
- Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?No won
- Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m?No won
- Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m?No won
- Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.