TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,444 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes53c6,193$3,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,891.261957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes15c5,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2502433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes32c3,854$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.6129642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes71c2,986$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.323639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No36c2,525$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.264436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9ce…9811backed Yes80c2,267$1,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.814250%21 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes38c2,177$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.9532739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No24c1,477$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.228225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7056…c95cbacked Yes36c1,300$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.142263.6%14 W · 8 L+6.0wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+87.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No39c1,224$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.8716737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes64c1,200$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43647328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes61c1,099$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.2618746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No22c1,003$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.334560%27 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No32c970.12$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.910436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No30c761.65$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.55229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-66.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2330…ed99backed Yes39c705.01$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.482560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes70c699.99$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2108247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aac…309abacked No57c667.57$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.362138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee6b…e9d8backed No5c646.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c646.22$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.712442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No61c512.29$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.681050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb355…f149backed Yes47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No44c494.17$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.958638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3344…56c4backed No11c489.33$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.63148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No53c483.32$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.7311129.7%33 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c395.55$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.415339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No23c359.23$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0914337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6408…d5c6backed No3c349.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26313.2%1 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-83.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes19c346.78$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.813119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes14c323.9$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.3823321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8192…0664backed No4c313.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.08210%0 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b71…cb46backed No4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e14…5adabacked No4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed No72c292$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.281154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No60c285$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No18c284.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3311924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd9…1024backed Yes38c261.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.465234.6%18 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No70c244.16$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.689851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb92…5c74backed No5c232.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No38c199.85$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7816015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes42c186.29$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.6829423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c165$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.816747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c164.36$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No61c156.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4410339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed Yes37c145.61$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.683568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes46c138.49$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.43243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No71c105$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3387…c3f7backed Yes65c101.01$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.481346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes56c100.92$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.096150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fd…15a0backed No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.69034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No18c94.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.763246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes28c93.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.671,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No72c85.49$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9122030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed Yes24c83.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.836137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No72c79.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.274645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed No15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.590%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No72c65.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2523130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c6e…c234backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.38461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89a8…2b17backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0832…c3c1backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No64c48.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.094252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes44c45.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.752236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdad7…005abacked Yes33c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.05633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb59…d1a7backed No60c43.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf124…9d72backed No69c42.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No62c39.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.585251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No53c37.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1110042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked No67c37.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39ca…7605backed Yes36c34.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.353562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeae4…ad95backed Yes45c33.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No59c32.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.511643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf508…30a5backed Yes58c32.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.861855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0278…bff4backed No80c30.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.392572%18 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed No76c26.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes46c25.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.965042%21 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes76c25.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.123158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No46c25.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.593748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146a…8108backed Yes56c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x952d…ab8abacked Yes57c21.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.19560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No70c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72623.1%6 W · 20 L-5.7wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-53.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4941…b03cbacked No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked No54c18.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No71c17.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3911184.7%94 W · 17 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick74cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21d5…6afcbacked Yes69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+105%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.