UFC · resolved market
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x365c73ff0238d5491eee28333b12a4eeea06ea694d7e070b7d635cfa7daffe88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 38c | 448.94$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 64c | 399.83$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 51cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 50c | 350$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…e9d4backed No | 44c | 316.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 66c | 311.92$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…6460backed Yes | 4c | 308.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 294.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…53ecbacked Yes | 70c | 286.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 49c | 268.21$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 55c | 264.67$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 64c | 232.14$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked No | 50c | 201.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 190.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed No | 39c | 172.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b5…6121backed Yes | 62c | 160$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…7704backed Yes | 65c | 154.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e61…230abacked No | 33c | 152.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 148.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 36c | 134.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…8704backed No | 45c | 112.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…f8adbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 46c | 62.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1331backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…3f30backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 62c | 48.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Yes | 53c | 48.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed No | 42c | 48.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 54c | 48.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…985cbacked Yes | 70c | 44.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed No | 48c | 43.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 52c | 43.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Yes | 51c | 40.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 36.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…7decbacked Yes | 58c | 34.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…57aabacked Yes | 63c | 31.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cb…a867backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9000…6adcbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed No | 40c | 28.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…f403backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e78…4e67backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…113cbacked Yes | 59c | 25.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…6fe1backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.