Movies · resolved market
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0bb25f3d9a230fa7942304776ba9e314054e874a3e53bc0f3c1ee3568287038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 71c | 1,082$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.11 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 73c | 769.27$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.06 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 30c | 549.93$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.63 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…38e8backed Yes | 17c | 491$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 70c | 449.5$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 12c | 329$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.38 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 29c | 313.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.51 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 32c | 261.48$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.04 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…7e5bbacked Yes | 65c | 239$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.13 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.9wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -60%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 18c | 234$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.73 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…5e90backed Yes | 21c | 222$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 25c | 173.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.69 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 159.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 16c | 159.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.46 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 140$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 22c | 126$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 23c | 110$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 99.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 35c | 81.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 30c | 81.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed No | 35c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 36c | 37.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…7e67backed No | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 50c | 25.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.