Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ralph Norman win Richland County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4b9a7f2dbc9723877ee1c315d3f4eb085c1d9abc47334ba55f1cd6c19531d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 9c | 3,586$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.41 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 8c | 1,887$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 7c | 1,597$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 64c | 1,060$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.44 | 255 | 36.5%93 W · 162 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 833.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 511$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 184 | 29.9%55 W · 129 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 4c | 401.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 8c | 154.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed Yes | 12c | 101.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ralph Norman win Richland County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?this page
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win Richland County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.