Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb993bafc61c9039df0d269acc8cf50438293ef87ee9d35e62ce9759b5e3321b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 1,189$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.3 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 40c | 999.94$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.96 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 67c | 955.41$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.47 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 62c | 953.05$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.34 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…3ce1backed Yes | 41c | 854.42$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 61c | 793.61$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.81 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…fc9bbacked No | 63c | 490.37$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 32c | 456.95$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 62c | 310$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 35c | 278.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.28 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…1392backed Yes | 42c | 240.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 66c | 234.16$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.92 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes | 38c | 212.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 35c | 167.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 38c | 160.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 146.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.52 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 138.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…93debacked Yes | 37c | 106$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 33c | 102.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 101.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbc…cc2abacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 90.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 57c | 87.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 73.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 67c | 73.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 26c | 72.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 34c | 66.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 64.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 69c | 60.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 27c | 59.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 33c | 55.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 66c | 53.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 36c | 52.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 50.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 63c | 47.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 63c | 43.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2611…62c7backed Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 67c | 31.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…33a4backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06cc…20a0backed No | 64c | 17.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?this page
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.