Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd53e9c23da296b3f7925868de884c77b848f80ba1de074ca0a9028d7c1453ed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 73c | 1,474$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…3ce1backed Yes | 27c | 1,335$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 1,119$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.59 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 79c | 401.25$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab0…bd9cbacked Yes | 25c | 370.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 77c | 365.65$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 17c | 313.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 29c | 306.07$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 297.76$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…260fbacked Yes | 20c | 231.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 199.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 25c | 144.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 19c | 116.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 20c | 113.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 21c | 108.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 97.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 74c | 88.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 28c | 85.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 19c | 82.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 73c | 81.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 73.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…33a4backed Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 74c | 35.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…1838backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6b…9f9bbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…fc9bbacked No | 77c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?this page
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
- Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.