Movies · resolved market
Will "Apex" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f6367d3880bd99d6bafaaee51bb65230c56940dcce25b9a037debb75cb53b1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 22c | 1,493$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.57 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 3c | 1,344$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 22c | 1,326$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.47 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 74c | 1,159$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.16 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 7c | 594.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 39c | 560$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.76 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 447$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 445.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 17c | 400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 65c | 355.63$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 19c | 324.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 61c | 170$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 129$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc691…389cbacked Yes | 48c | 121$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 48c | 96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 60c | 92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 47c | 84.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 52c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…4563backed Yes | 74c | 31.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Apex" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.