Token Launches · resolved market
Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40d22fe067aa4b46d67ed21f4399e3a1215644705ddca2e98e0eec5065e3be7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa792…2066backed Yes | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2229…6bf8backed No | 19c | 2,406$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.01 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +10.5wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…ac37backed No | 24c | 2,303$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 37cpaid | +698%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Yes | 79c | 1,867$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.58 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,313$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 5c | 1,286$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +286.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 8c | 1,230$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 12c | 800$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 546.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed No | 16c | 424.72$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 25c | 400$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 18c | 176.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 174$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 17c | 141.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…3df1backed No | 16c | 92.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 20c | 88.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 17c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf49f…2661backed No | 18c | 83.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 77c | 31.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $14M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $18M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $45M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $65M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $85M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $95M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.