Token Launches · resolved market
Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3896f6f88253bf79d63da24c7927c7be5ced43aa717a8e96cabdbe7b48f9d35f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe270…10b5backed Yes | 79c | 20,124$15,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,319.62 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 32c | 19,578$6,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,227.59 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…2528backed No | 1c | 16,373$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +13.8wins | +0.42per pick | 31cpaid | +257.2%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…ef01backed Yes | 69c | 8,027$5,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,470.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 5c | 6,647$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…0d2ebacked No | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 25c | 3,837$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.37 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed No | 25c | 3,500$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd953…a9c0backed Yes | 67c | 3,000$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 69c | 2,590$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.1 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,311$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed No | 1c | 2,086$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 32c | 2,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed No | 35c | 1,417$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.57 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…ac37backed No | 34c | 1,120$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.65 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 37cpaid | +698%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…9626backed Yes | 66c | 1,120$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 32c | 1,100$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…f038backed Yes | 68c | 1,050$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa792…2066backed Yes | 64c | 1,000$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…f463backed No | 3c | 980$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 67c | 747.26$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.6 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706d…a527backed Yes | 68c | 710$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 29c | 695$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.55 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae3…288bbacked Yes | 68c | 640.83$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed No | 28c | 560$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…c279backed Yes | 68c | 524.05$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…327ebacked Yes | 73c | 450$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…ba79backed Yes | 72c | 444$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 437$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c88…4c64backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…5606backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 61c | 178$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e76…ddb8backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…8c95backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed No | 30c | 79.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…df61backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b8…392abacked Yes | 76c | 65.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…43b5backed No | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 34c | 41.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Yes | 63c | 30.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…78e5backed No | 37c | 27.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…da90backed Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $20M committed to the Credible public sale?this page
- Over $100M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $10M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $14M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $18M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $27.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $45M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $50M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $65M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $80M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $85M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale?Yes won
- Over $90M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
- Over $95M committed to the Credible public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.