TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
3DMAXof NIP, 3DMAX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$906,914
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$930,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $906,914 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 458 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed 3DMAX47c256,486$121,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134,666.589942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed NIP52c108,795$56,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,713.221051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked NIP53c100,000$53,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,000944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked NIP45c88,278$40,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,166.472653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked 3DMAX47c31,918$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,918.2581751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…b2e0backed 3DMAX49c27,650$13,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,088.264562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed NIP51c24,293$12,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,507.286741.8%28 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked NIP38c22,237$8,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,556.521,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf07…80c3backed 3DMAX45c19,965$8,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,980.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed 3DMAX46c16,304$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,804.229247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed 3DMAX49c15,693$7,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,943.812648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed NIP28c15,655$4,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,342.5823852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed 3DMAX70c15,439$10,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,661.864,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked NIP33c15,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,95013633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed NIP55c13,636$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50019660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5019…74cdbacked NIP38c12,698$4,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,844.7111630.2%35 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked NIP53c12,634$6,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,686.1913646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed 3DMAX39c12,164$4,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,376.9988242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed 3DMAX46c11,540$5,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,231.4772453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked NIP57c10,950$6,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,269.996555.4%36 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed 3DMAX55c10,644$5,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,763.71,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 3DMAX59c10,360$6,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,251.162,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed NIP55c9,048$5,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,017.0146949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 3DMAX60c8,768$5,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,523.231,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked NIP54c8,608$4,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,659.5519043.7%83 W · 107 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed 3DMAX47c8,000$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,24057647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed NIP55c8,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4003237.5%12 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-35.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed NIP54c7,950$4,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,293.014862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed 3DMAX45c7,938$3,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,365.9622849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x640f…f197backed NIP13c7,692$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004122%9 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ba…4e57backed NIP56c7,598$4,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,225.177349.3%36 W · 37 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked 3DMAX46c7,344$3,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,002.3911353.1%60 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked 3DMAX50c6,949$3,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.8183652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabdf…e8e4backed 3DMAX46c6,949$3,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,752.493366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked NIP25c6,864$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.683426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd041…7b26backed NIP30c6,648$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.653633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x928e…d701backed NIP54c6,085$3,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,314.754852.1%25 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked 3DMAX52c6,001$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,861.31,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3776…73c1backed NIP24c5,917$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed 3DMAX76c5,822$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.57683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+61.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed NIP55c5,273$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9009234.8%32 W · 60 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf82d…ae0fbacked NIP56c4,938$2,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,765333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed 3DMAX73c4,866$3,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.9117761%108 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed NIP53c4,728$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.8411654.3%63 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 3DMAX59c4,137$2,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.263,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed NIP53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1208042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed NIP53c3,844$2,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,022.2339239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed 3DMAX45c3,760$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,06844648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c2…d0afbacked NIP55c3,353$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-71.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed 3DMAX46c3,261$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.879044.4%40 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed NIP54c3,169$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.3360853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed NIP55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6503435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-40.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed 3DMAX45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65024139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed NIP27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81067041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed 3DMAX71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8706432.8%21 W · 43 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed NIP54c2,900$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.988657%49 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef8…8712backed NIP54c2,778$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked NIP55c2,727$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50011241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed 3DMAX48c2,713$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.0428453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked NIP55c2,662$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.9927452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed 3DMAX45c2,559$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.571,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed 3DMAX45c2,406$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.0930340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked NIP55c2,182$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2006552.3%34 W · 31 L-7.5wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb615…5baebacked 3DMAX47c2,127$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.085261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 3DMAX44c2,115$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.891,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked 3DMAX53c2,100$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9871070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked 3DMAX47c2,100$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.9935940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed 3DMAX53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94058651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked NIP54c2,000$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.9922056.4%124 W · 96 L+19.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed NIP53c1,999$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.145756.1%32 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked 3DMAX45c1,956$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.5624440.6%99 W · 145 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed NIP53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed NIP55c1,826$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00034156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed 3DMAX53c1,679$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.2519448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked 3DMAX60c1,676$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.979141.8%38 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked NIP54c1,608$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.0613460.4%81 W · 53 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed 3DMAX63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.324350.6%123 W · 120 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked 3DMAX46c1,500$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.9910442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed 3DMAX46c1,393$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.4812346.3%57 W · 66 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef92…9df5backed 3DMAX75c1,350$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.52972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed NIP52c1,344$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.5510951.4%56 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed 3DMAX47c1,344$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.3326344.5%117 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48ad…4bc9backed 3DMAX75c1,340$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.292755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked NIP26c1,320$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3455455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7437…e1e9backed 3DMAX46c1,291$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.9910942.2%46 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed 3DMAX70c1,269$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.7364552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed 3DMAX46c1,203$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.351833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked 3DMAX46c1,200$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6489343%40 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed NIP29c1,099$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.138446.4%39 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0ef…1f41backed 3DMAX46c1,087$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked 3DMAX47c1,062$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.8626045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ff…62ccbacked 3DMAX47c1,055$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.425547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed 3DMAX48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.676142.6%26 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed 3DMAX49c1,000$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.2229851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bfe…ab8dbacked NIP54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+40.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed NIP19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901,27721.9%280 W · 997 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf12a…f637backed NIP56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5601369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+53.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc449…2239backed NIP40c988.94$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c7e…d24bbacked 3DMAX46c931.09$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.79966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+54.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed NIP54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025052.8%132 W · 118 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.