TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,640
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$146,554

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,640 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73cb…b0d0backed No50c33,796$16,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,898.013839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Yes50c31,970$15,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,984.935754.4%31 W · 26 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked No48c10,587$5,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,081.865448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes72c10,287$7,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,880.9620462.3%127 W · 77 L+19.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed No51c10,108$5,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,163.9221037.1%78 W · 132 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa074…49c3backed Yes52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8001353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes49c5,094$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,609.1239842.2%168 W · 230 L+1.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes49c3,027$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.6236851.1%188 W · 180 L+15.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.99643.8%42 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed No37c2,452$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.155853.4%31 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No50c2,100$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.9638048.7%185 W · 195 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed No5c1,743$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.269244.6%41 W · 51 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Yes54c1,062$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.9330754.1%166 W · 141 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb826…8d67backed Yes48c1,043$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.711421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Yes57c1,042$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.152250%11 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8bf…c049backed Yes49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.411861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9614…5247backed No52c1,001$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed No51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5103174.2%23 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85c7…1db7backed Yes48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No6c996$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9746956.5%265 W · 204 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes57c990.9$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.949350.5%47 W · 46 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes50c961.18$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.5912359.3%73 W · 50 L+12.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No49c930.83$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.923531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf4…952ebacked No51c762.94$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.62147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes50c666$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3337055.7%39 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Yes50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9473…058fbacked Yes52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…27b3backed No52c526.83$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25523942.7%102 W · 137 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25519645.4%89 W · 107 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No49c463.66$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.0117658.5%103 W · 73 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Yes47c458.63$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.6112956.6%73 W · 56 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78a5…50b7backed No50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb701…7cf6backed Yes53c385.11$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.48433.3%28 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes52c381.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.9620133.8%68 W · 133 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked No11c373$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6615153%80 W · 71 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked No51c350$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.616836.3%61 W · 107 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd88…1ca6backed No51c327$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.482347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No51c302.96$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5119453.6%104 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x614b…5845backed Yes52c300.75$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15010743%46 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0560…d77dbacked No51c299.93$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.971643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked No6c299$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5928357.2%162 W · 121 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes68c288.93$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2124963.1%157 W · 92 L+45.5wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+63.6%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0xa66e…3430backed Yes52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+56.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed No51c258.96$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.028748.3%42 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9567…e505backed No50c249.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.741464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No48c249$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.576955.1%38 W · 31 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49dc…9830backed No52c230.77$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-47.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9320…95ddbacked No50c213.87$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.944351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes50c210$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10513139.7%52 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26da…6ed0backed Yes49c205.8$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes73c205.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4820667.5%139 W · 67 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.084235.7%15 W · 27 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes49c200$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1034531.1%14 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83dd…fe0fbacked Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Yes48c199.96$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9812862.5%80 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Yes51c194.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.34988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick49cpaid+95.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312466.7%16 W · 8 L+5.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+65.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x69ce…670abacked Yes49c144.98$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1620…d3c4backed No54c140.91$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.09450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8439…76efbacked Yes49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5d9…2cefbacked Yes51c121.66$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.622236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacd8…e908backed Yes53c120.77$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.761457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x893c…9ed2backed No54c117.72$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cd…9973backed No52c115.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No52c115.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8229136.8%107 W · 184 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8941…8cc6backed No55c115.07$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02cd…a6e2backed Yes48c115.06$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x696a…5391backed Yes49c113.2$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe985…8f5ebacked No55c107.85$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed Yes51c107.84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.842334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70d3…a474backed Yes48c105.29$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5011070%77 W · 33 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5652…ff34backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210040%40 W · 60 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe06c…62aebacked Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ff…b701backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2453…28e2backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507440.5%30 W · 44 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ee…a079backed Yes52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.15887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick53cpaid+58.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3e6…216dbacked No52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No53c95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3522547.6%107 W · 118 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked No51c90$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.95764.9%37 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c9a…46b6backed No51c89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbf…de7bbacked Yes51c86.14$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.213033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4447…560abacked No53c85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes57c83.57$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5225735%90 W · 167 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e9…0801backed Yes52c82.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.46475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+55.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.632441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c46…3614backed Yes49c81.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked Yes53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.474639.1%18 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6173…4258backed No48c75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362035%7 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd1…48eabacked No50c67.79$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bb8…7471backed Yes59c67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.479341.9%39 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f0…f925backed Yes49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72d4…fbd8backed No53c61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a3f…3aa3backed Yes52c60.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.04785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+58.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfff0…eec6backed Yes49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78c2…8316backed Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe01f…6d4ebacked Yes49c59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x679e…66d1backed Yes49c54.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.971637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.