Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb7f41e3f21a37a703ccce2a423e7f2e519e8c93cb941bdcad9dc63cc34f0aee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 78c | 2,402$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.61 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…790bbacked No | 45c | 2,219$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.42 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 79c | 1,794$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.51 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 52c | 1,363$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.05 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 13c | 1,216$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 64c | 1,082$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.53 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 30c | 976.82$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.3 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 66c | 917.5$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed No | 22c | 875.48$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 34c | 720$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.21 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e4…2005backed No | 79c | 583.59$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 64c | 546.4$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 32c | 545.47$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 29c | 509.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked Yes | 57c | 481.93$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 429.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed Yes | 46c | 326.13$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.21 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e4…ca09backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed No | 42c | 237.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 235$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 233$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 27c | 226$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 60c | 214.66$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 5c | 210.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 69c | 209.26$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e2…f378backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked No | 67c | 169.01$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 30c | 150.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 33c | 149.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 29c | 142.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 124.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…1ed5backed No | 25c | 121$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 119.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…c3bcbacked Yes | 80c | 112.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 28c | 107.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 88.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 88.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…f405backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…988cbacked No | 26c | 69.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 55c | 69.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 15c | 68.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 66c | 65.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fac…532dbacked Yes | 65c | 63.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 27c | 59.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 56.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 52.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…99bbbacked Yes | 48c | 52.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 53c | 50.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…806ebacked Yes | 70c | 44.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…9100backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 69c | 43.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 48c | 41.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…fa05backed No | 27c | 39.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…82f1backed No | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 80c | 36.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 52c | 29.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 38c | 28.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…df65backed Yes | 48c | 25.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…a11dbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…493abacked No | 78c | 24.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a2…e17dbacked No | 78c | 24.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…3f15backed Yes | 67c | 23.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked No | 53c | 18.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?this page
- Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.