Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e16ca9f861e3eae89c7922e64dd5540d80d9f70cd08b1e3daf93b67f3adaca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,647$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.45 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 811.48$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.51 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 10c | 804.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.83 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 750.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.69 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes | 7c | 710.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.58 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 34c | 708.27$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.05 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 7c | 556.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.76 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 8c | 330.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.85 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 11c | 319.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.53 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 4c | 318.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.73 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 283.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.58 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 234.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.43 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 6c | 199.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.98 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…8a2fbacked Yes | 12c | 168.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.42 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…a07abacked Yes | 9c | 166$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 17c | 154.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.1 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 67c | 153.04$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…0432backed Yes | 21c | 143.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ab…e99cbacked No | 71c | 116.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 44c | 101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 73c | 69.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 51c | 33.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 27.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 26.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 25.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 51c | 23.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 17.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.