Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x650b55b391049456cf1965f14841d7d31f331770ac0476e453fce1d257664d43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,819$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.36 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…69d7backed Yes | 5c | 1,167$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 79c | 1,081$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.96 | 637 | 39.1%249 W · 388 L | +48.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 1,054$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.64 | 2,576 | 13.2%339 W · 2,237 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 808.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 18c | 734.27$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.75 | 658 | 23.3%153 W · 505 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 19c | 545.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 501$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 58c | 457.51$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.53 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 8c | 336.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes | 24c | 335.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 22c | 324.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 196 | 28.1%55 W · 141 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 23c | 299.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 299.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed No | 77c | 292.18$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 286.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 68c | 280$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 268.72$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 526 | 45.6%240 W · 286 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 226$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 2,181 | 3.9%85 W · 2,096 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 170.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | -21.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 169$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 403 | 19.1%77 W · 326 L | -57.7wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 76c | 163.57$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e2…147abacked Yes | 17c | 150.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 150.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 137$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 813 | 35.7%290 W · 523 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 119.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…9e8bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 73c | 96.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 92.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 70c | 91.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 423 | 19.4%82 W · 341 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 87.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 290 | 48.3%140 W · 150 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 252 | 55.6%140 W · 112 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…842ebacked Yes | 22c | 66.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 60.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 315 | 54.9%173 W · 142 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 78c | 54.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…8a17backed Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 69c | 50.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 344 | 70.3%242 W · 102 L | +23.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 40c | 49.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 76c | 49.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 225 | 57.8%130 W · 95 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 80c | 24.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 79c | 12.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.