Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76aed4b48d8db8d127eced94251b54225cf65899e978ff29e081997cbdcdc819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 745.75$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.38 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 699.99$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.49 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 17c | 633.78$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.23 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 51c | 569.37$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.08 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 21c | 548.2$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 539.69$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked No | 34c | 513.25$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6e…bd19backed Yes | 64c | 501.46$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f66…ede0backed Yes | 74c | 436.27$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 45c | 402.13$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.71 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 64c | 238.85$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0240…fb00backed Yes | 76c | 223.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 221$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.73 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 40c | 200.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…84bbbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…c211backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 57c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98e…797fbacked Yes | 50c | 199.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74c…cf72backed No | 31c | 194.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 194$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 42c | 192.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…1177backed Yes | 47c | 186.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 7c | 183.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 42c | 183$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 167$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 80c | 166.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed No | 34c | 149.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…a07abacked Yes | 10c | 140.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 33c | 127.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 39c | 116.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 72c | 115.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 35c | 113.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…af34backed No | 45c | 106.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…b858backed No | 32c | 99.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +160.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…0432backed Yes | 21c | 95.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 37c | 92.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes | 27c | 84.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 61c | 84.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed No | 49c | 84.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 16c | 83.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…4a3fbacked Yes | 72c | 81.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 29c | 79.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 36c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…5c9dbacked No | 43c | 70.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd937…456dbacked Yes | 65c | 70.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 69.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9a…4373backed No | 42c | 69.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +92%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…69d7backed Yes | 21c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…d03fbacked Yes | 29c | 66.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…ba52backed Yes | 78c | 63.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…59c6backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…8a2fbacked No | 43c | 54.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b43…4077backed Yes | 56c | 53.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 205 | 32.7%67 W · 138 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…febbbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…b863backed Yes | 60c | 49.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b1…eb0bbacked No | 41c | 48.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 31c | 48.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…be73backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…842ebacked Yes | 66c | 42.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda8d…18d5backed No | 50c | 37.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 36.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…6036backed Yes | 66c | 36.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…3f7bbacked No | 45c | 35.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 46c | 34.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 57c | 31.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…2688backed Yes | 65c | 30.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 80c | 30.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…b83cbacked Yes | 39c | 29.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 48c | 27.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 25.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…2f81backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 78c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.