Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb9b6c8cafa55f36f5378be101125304b33cb622f6929bfc156a33282edace69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 30,642$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,495$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6914…3cbcbacked Yes | 0c | 11,604$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,604$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 7,004$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 13c | 5,727$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.96 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 13c | 3,835$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.93 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Yes | 9c | 3,746$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.99 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 4c | 3,500$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.69 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 1c | 3,039$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 2c | 2,579$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,436$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,569$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,505$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc586…0577backed Yes | 1c | 1,439$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes | 12c | 1,039$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,002$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 896.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Yes | 1c | 805.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 7c | 766.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…09a8backed Yes | 2c | 755.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…bba2backed Yes | 2c | 647.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 563.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 506.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb80…34c6backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 14c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…6dc2backed Yes | 6c | 338.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…6f48backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 9c | 172.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…c668backed Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4f…a0cbbacked Yes | 12c | 159$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9716backed Yes | 13c | 83.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 16-22?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.