Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb790402181b0f847fdd47085346d08b04a00b268568232995dc609ef13f95da7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1461…22d8backed Yes | 4c | 33,409$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.27 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0216…d434backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 6c | 9,716$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.23 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 5,800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 4c | 5,047$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 16c | 2,015$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.46 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,956$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.01 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes | 21c | 1,892$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.23 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…2352backed Yes | 23c | 1,866$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.49 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 7c | 1,842$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.39 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…57a6backed Yes | 16c | 1,824$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Yes | 18c | 1,700$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +546.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,226$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 12c | 1,182$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,136$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 1,082$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes | 17c | 1,027$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,001$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfd…1e89backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 969.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…f072backed Yes | 2c | 837.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 823.68$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 79c | 798.85$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.26 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 13c | 792.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Yes | 15c | 678.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 2c | 624.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…2c7bbacked Yes | 24c | 495.79$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…c599backed Yes | 10c | 490.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 468.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05cb…f625backed Yes | 12c | 230$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…b5a0backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 19c | 207$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 16c | 180.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…57d1backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7525backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8de…eef2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa010…98bdbacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 16c | 99.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…4735backed Yes | 13c | 96.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…7008backed Yes | 21c | 61.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…7fc1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…8c59backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…18cfbacked No | 78c | 23.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 16-22?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.