Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf594f866b3c2ac7cf0efdaf2f23563732a1ece61303d7e97a419b15d305b676
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $302,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $318,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 1c | 25,577$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.61 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 7c | 24,754$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.15 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 2c | 12,665$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.13 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,263$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,917$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 2c | 6,153$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,282$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 8c | 4,908$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes | 1c | 4,560$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 3,497$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.09 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Yes | 20c | 3,414$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.95 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 2c | 2,519$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,875$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,569$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 8c | 1,514$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.28 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 10c | 1,307$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,265$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 6c | 1,162$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…606abacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 13c | 922.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 6c | 900$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Yes | 5c | 867.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb47backed Yes | 2c | 833.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 828.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 23c | 763.35$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.14 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes | 2c | 757.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…a36fbacked Yes | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes | 4c | 647.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…e800backed Yes | 12c | 476.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 6c | 401.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…6f48backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 373.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 7c | 370$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…9a25backed Yes | 12c | 330.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 245.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…85e9backed No | 78c | 231.96$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…6dc2backed Yes | 23c | 218.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…e625backed Yes | 16c | 206.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 15c | 133.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1e…1f2fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 22c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed Yes | 16c | 72.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…f887backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…a547backed No | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502f…c23dbacked No | 78c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 16-22?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.