TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 16-22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$358,986
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$355,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $358,986 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes7c19,010$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.9828021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcaf…a241backed Yes1c17,329$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes35c14,176$4,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,959.4187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb424…e203backed No79c9,522$7,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.871478.6%11 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes5c8,939$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c8,886$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.871,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes4c8,500$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes18c8,319$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.7858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e7…d932backed Yes42c6,036$2,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,534.962152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+110.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc9f…2ca3backed Yes5c3,366$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c2…1ebebacked Yes39c2,576$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes36c2,562$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.5864812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes40c2,536$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.051816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes20c2,505$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.114019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes1c2,302$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe784…e664backed Yes31c2,000$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.52626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6604858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcf8…5b23backed No71c1,900$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…22d8backed No77c1,723$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.132777.8%21 W · 6 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes3c1,659$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.726622.7%15 W · 51 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick4cpaid+272.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x1962…e1f0backed Yes35c1,586$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed No52c1,348$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.888634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0070…0414backed Yes40c1,324$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.974654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes38c1,308$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.781421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-55%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed Yes44c1,301$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.246250%31 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes6c1,301$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.43426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c1,269$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.066785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x981f…8993backed Yes3c1,252$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.161735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+60.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes4c1,198$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No79c1,130$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.0922550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes58c1,079$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.482634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b4d…6b6ebacked Yes39c1,033$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes52c1,000$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes11c975.93$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.713998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb33…2dcebacked Yes30c900$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e1…431dbacked Yes18c854.95$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.951315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9204…7bd5backed Yes39c792.29$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.963030%9 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes13c711.14$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7331523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked No56c700$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3081855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bfd…1e89backed Yes7c694.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes5c676.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.68137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-65.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes20c600$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.899427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes4c540$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.023438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes5c536.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.052581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…4594backed Yes43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215150%0 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5b3a…d490backed Yes3c460.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes15c431.02$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.514211.9%5 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes3c427.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9913117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes4c414.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.732683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes35c400$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14112129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes30c399.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120466.5%3 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-81.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe4…01b7backed Yes32c350$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.866835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Yes59c340.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd555…ddfbbacked Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3684…a503backed Yes31c320$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes31c319.35$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9914340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Yes49c313.64$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb261…e94abacked Yes50c301.78$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.911346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x089e…45e6backed Yes27c300$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+38.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9f2…132bbacked Yes50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x137f…968dbacked Yes17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes20c289.07$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.61435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87b…1a52backed Yes15c260.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.02911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8337…e800backed Yes44c247.22$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-79.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ad…5692backed Yes5c241.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0990…f36fbacked Yes13c232.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303112.9%4 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes39c230$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.33844.7%17 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9316…c00cbacked Yes5c217.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…9ed0backed No64c210.26$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.543531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed Yes50c200.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73b7…7933backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402821.4%6 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae2…2965backed Yes26c193.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5e…79c7backed Yes45c188$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.68119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-82.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No51c175$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.476758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes11c166.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes28c165.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6134848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e9c…c878backed No69c149.28$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.28825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed Yes40c140$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca47…d6fdbacked Yes19c136.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.01560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aec…7008backed Yes24c129.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes36c124.09$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.361618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…57a6backed Yes46c122.27$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.17825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ab…7085backed Yes23c121.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02bb…cb45backed No60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eeb…c3d7backed No60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb4…9776backed Yes51c118.15$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.73616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c8a…4c20backed No43c117.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.92683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+60.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6374…891fbacked Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7905…a886backed Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa966…24f0backed Yes39c106.21$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes44c102.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.738521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed No51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a5…2ee0backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick29cpaid+289.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0066…394fbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40b9…4b04backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.66560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081c…308bbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308327.7%23 W · 60 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86f0…be32backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302263.6%14 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.