TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 16-22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$195,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,543 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd86c…0670backed Yes54c13,713$7,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,307.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c0…661ebacked No46c13,259$6,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,099.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No28c12,951$3,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,650.958126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f6…8906backed No10c12,241$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes65c11,953$7,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,131.7487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes59c9,800$5,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,051.884047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…22d8backed Yes75c8,722$6,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.142777.8%21 W · 6 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7656…6e7dbacked No33c8,586$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+88.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f8c…90c3backed Yes67c8,363$5,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,759.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No7c7,620$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.0437745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes71c7,255$5,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.9522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x798e…5184backed Yes56c6,280$3,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,762.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+181.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3247…311dbacked No44c6,191$2,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,723.89333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1470…1cb4backed Yes69c5,368$3,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.16475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa83e…0f4bbacked No31c5,136$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5763…1c22backed Yes74c4,290$3,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.041947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01e7…d932backed Yes74c4,132$3,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.652152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+110.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc88…10eabacked Yes56c3,223$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick37cpaid+283.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b3e…cc97backed No44c3,210$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85cd…bf2abacked No46c3,093$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2c9…a644backed Yes80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed No36c2,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47de…0085backed No31c2,589$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab6d…96acbacked Yes69c2,552$1,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1050…0dd6backed No33c2,490$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+96.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa48b…59f1backed Yes67c2,478$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x812d…9786backed Yes54c2,198$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c7d…2a63backed No44c2,145$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd72…9dfcbacked Yes56c2,113$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8544…a7a9backed No46c2,036$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ae…6ebfbacked Yes49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0202352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed Yes71c1,941$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.566250%31 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50b6…acf8backed Yes54c1,915$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+157.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Yes60c1,748$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.497767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd172…19febacked No31c1,693$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f7f…109fbacked No33c1,649$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.2450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+79.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…4eecbacked Yes69c1,642$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf89f…b84abacked Yes67c1,638$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0070…0414backed Yes72c1,597$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.854654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c1,448$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.0564812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x15ca…0ff6backed Yes56c1,315$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+301.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dcf…e69ebacked No44c1,221$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8ee…48febacked No46c1,163$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+57.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes72c1,100$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3082828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b0…3d81backed Yes54c1,062$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b7…19e6backed No31c983.87$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95e2…106dbacked Yes69c962.58$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07c3…1282backed No33c933.81$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5892…f672backed Yes67c928.3$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No46c876.82$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.4440643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed No26c763.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004341.9%18 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes57c700$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3041816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes72c700$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19612129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe963…1856backed Yes67c670$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.41637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No12c669.36$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2631523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes56c659.11$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.8234848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked No13c599.51$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.933998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes73c592.44$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.035954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes40c529.8$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.8728021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab1…3437backed No44c522.33$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.8320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed No27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.978634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes76c488.05$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4416537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes56c487.89$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.1614340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No28c487.81$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.614211.9%5 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed No26c450$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.15757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac9b…9da4backed No31c412.85$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6451…8671backed Yes50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88df…a457backed Yes55c380$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.23330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes73c379.96$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6726274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2608…a299backed Yes56c358.8$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes49c346.94$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.942744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2edb…9ac5backed No32c312.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005448.1%26 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x788d…5d23backed Yes64c310$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.52646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.16785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62bc…5ab5backed Yes69c289.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Yes54c277.08$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.081650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f98…086ebacked No22c251.42$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc1…3512backed No23c228.86$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-49.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4730…cdb1backed No24c225.8$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No33c210$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.34650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f2…132bbacked Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2114…7cd4backed No38c193.76$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ed…fbddbacked No33c190$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.72560%15 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d9…a756backed No24c180$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.22650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x730c…17f8backed No33c178.58$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6374…891fbacked Yes57c174.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.143455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d14…9accbacked Yes50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c19…ec4ebacked No46c143.51$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa966…24f0backed No33c142.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd568…e486backed No7c139.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c9d…11b9backed No34c137.4$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce42…b9a9backed No41c136.71$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.05475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c97…7372backed No16c131$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f4…9ed0backed No29c126.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.463531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f20…fdc9backed Yes54c121.44$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe81e…6258backed No32c119$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1dc…7525backed Yes63c101.7$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.03812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-80%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0066…394fbacked Yes70c100.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.146119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4912259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.