Us Politics · resolved market
ICE forced to unmask by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ff396b50f85e91dd6faf5ecf6a48d109a239937f03d09137cf23207b1882d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 6c | 12,111$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.02 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,833$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,537$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.36 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 2,331$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7562…4984backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…6486backed Yes | 6c | 1,801$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,481$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,362$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…9d67backed Yes | 8c | 1,242$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,002$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 891.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…a2ffbacked Yes | 6c | 453.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 412.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 5c | 402.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 394.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 379.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 377.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 3c | 359.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…7e19backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 6c | 269$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed Yes | 9c | 233.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 232.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 6c | 195.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…020fbacked Yes | 6c | 170.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…5184backed Yes | 10c | 126.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f8…6815backed Yes | 9c | 123.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…1ec9backed Yes | 10c | 106.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c57…3cb3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.