Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end between May 18-24 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0231a22dd0a0c118cb3e10755c5a2659abf73fdcc5e6bb8a81fd923e5dcf9c99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 1,650$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.71 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 21c | 1,154$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.84 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 7c | 1,060$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed No | 72c | 1,007$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.84 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 78c | 890.55$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.19 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 733.87$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 70c | 529.69$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.91 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 15c | 477.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 366.63$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd778…18d3backed Yes | 30c | 298.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…9e1bbacked Yes | 29c | 199.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 179.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 79c | 169$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.35per pick | 62cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 21c | 166.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…19a6backed Yes | 20c | 152$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Yes | 28c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 28c | 108.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 79c | 107.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…9ec5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 29c | 49.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 73c | 47.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 73c | 41.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…272fbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 25c | 39.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…1d21backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end between May 18-24 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end after July 31 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 20-26 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 27-May 3 2026?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between May 11-17 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between May 4-10 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.