Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 27-May 3 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0b5aadf9abae637f7a16b02c3445a5af7d10249d8cb3daedc764f2cba90b55c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,788$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.8 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 44c | 1,742$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.34 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 79c | 913.4$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 870.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 56c | 633.77$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.5 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 6c | 613$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 37c | 384.71$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.18 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…3966backed No | 32c | 373$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 156.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 117.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…e130backed Yes | 23c | 103.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +338.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 17c | 93.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…c0fdbacked Yes | 15c | 72.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +581.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 32c | 59.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 18c | 55.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 59c | 41.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…a8a8backed No | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 35.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 45c | 35.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…8f2bbacked Yes | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 27-May 3 2026?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown end after July 31 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between April 20-26 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between May 11-17 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between May 18-24 2026?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown end between May 4-10 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.