Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8f00aca5df659d1dd27775d7354afb5b63670afe4cd1c3e09064f8b1f6fefb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df7…2340backed Yes | 65c | 470.34$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 53c | 455.48$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.3 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 41c | 308.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 61c | 204.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 199$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 47c | 190.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 67c | 149.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…4904backed No | 9c | 117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 104.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…acb2backed No | 28c | 94.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb1…fbcdbacked Yes | 75c | 74.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c1…ab9bbacked Yes | 60c | 71.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…1326backed Yes | 67c | 44.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…aed1backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…25a7backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia target Kyiv by August 7, 2026?this page
- Will Russia target Kyiv by August 14, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.