Venezuela · resolved market
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc5bc76b605859175517e5ea5676e05b22b5ec64e042bb2cce8b367233315285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e03…b1d0backed Yes | 48c | 48,130$23,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,027.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…0f51backed No | 52c | 48,130$25,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,027.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 2c | 1,796$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…c364backed No | 46c | 1,776$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 1,315$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 34c | 1,305$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.21 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…c1d8backed Yes | 76c | 1,186$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 21c | 989.42$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.73 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 33c | 857.51$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 73c | 734.68$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 40c | 635.07$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 25cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…0fc4backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 468.66$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.06 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked Yes | 34c | 299.77$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 17c | 288.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f37…b1d3backed No | 35c | 270.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…c288backed Yes | 76c | 263.44$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b0…4d24backed Yes | 72c | 247.66$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked No | 61c | 246.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…1f12backed No | 70c | 231.69$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 79c | 225.2$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked No | 68c | 224.55$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed Yes | 72c | 210$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7691…7af7backed No | 54c | 185.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 69c | 171.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…c686backed Yes | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3383…19f0backed No | 61c | 164.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b5…3fdebacked No | 55c | 160.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 156.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 45c | 147.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 145.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40c…19fdbacked No | 38c | 138.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 38c | 130.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 78c | 129.35$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 78c | 127.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 18c | 109.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 30c | 109$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 79c | 98.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 94.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…b74cbacked Yes | 34c | 93.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2896…fb1dbacked No | 38c | 80.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 37c | 78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…9aa4backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 71c | 71.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 24c | 71.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 37c | 62.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5713…eeeebacked No | 47c | 59.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93a…a6a3backed No | 58c | 59.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 75c | 58.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…cf7abacked No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe3…c834backed No | 55c | 54.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…a7cfbacked Yes | 38c | 53.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 56c | 52.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…c22bbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 48.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…12ecbacked Yes | 36c | 40.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…4da7backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…2401backed No | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4276…84e9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd82…20bdbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…75a0backed No | 57c | 28.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 62c | 20.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?this page
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026?No won
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.