Venezuela · resolved market
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c63d5d3460506e4d45138d8ec24ac013e7227db6379a220d0d70e15cd7f6b7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 63c | 808.28$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.48 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 25cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 608.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 40c | 499.75$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked Yes | 55c | 496.67$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3383…19f0backed Yes | 59c | 253.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b0…4d24backed No | 37c | 252.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04f9…9b39backed No | 44c | 249.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…0fc4backed Yes | 57c | 227.13$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2901…f4d6backed No | 43c | 204.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…ea80backed No | 45c | 191.11$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 58c | 188.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…7764backed Yes | 70c | 186.91$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked No | 44c | 180$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 139.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 126$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…1047backed Yes | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…3f8abacked No | 45c | 23.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?this page
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?Yes won
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026?No won
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.