Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a9dcced7e3072f9e33d8c67f16a21786f261bff297547cf865c828390231a69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61e0…fa5abacked Yes | 1c | 14,377$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 7c | 8,062$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.01 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 19c | 6,401$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.36 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 2c | 3,155$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 12c | 2,972$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.07 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 13c | 2,081$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.31 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 14c | 1,762$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.15 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 12c | 1,496$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.78 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Yes | 12c | 1,334$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 1,330$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +1,104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 8c | 1,204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 8c | 1,130$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 12c | 986.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 17c | 974$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.78 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 5c | 914.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 14c | 774.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 680.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 4c | 633.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…a860backed Yes | 15c | 633.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 4c | 568.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x791a…4aa1backed Yes | 5c | 378.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…f1d2backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 8c | 188.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…316ebacked Yes | 17c | 180.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 11c | 179.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…436bbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%?this page
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.