Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x265f6d585cb17683bef7a3cc69ebf97657d00e66fd68776fbd1491bd6411db1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 35c | 6,379$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263.65 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 20c | 3,152$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.27 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 6c | 2,880$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,868$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.61 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 21c | 2,107$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 18c | 2,081$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.41 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.91 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 21c | 1,494$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.62 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 19c | 1,470$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.23 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed Yes | 16c | 1,094$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 27c | 997$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.77 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 78c | 890.41$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 9c | 799.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 26c | 778.29$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 13c | 774.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 29c | 610.35$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 16c | 536.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 500$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 77c | 438.35$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…680ebacked Yes | 13c | 433.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 7c | 426.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 66c | 409.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.95 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 390.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed Yes | 27c | 371.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…227dbacked Yes | 25c | 352.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 78c | 344.17$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 66c | 314$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 17c | 270$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed Yes | 23c | 195.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed Yes | 36c | 170$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 22c | 169.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 63c | 165.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…a826backed Yes | 24c | 112.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9590backed Yes | 21c | 65.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…7636backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…fc9ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…88bebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…436bbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b9…f734backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 75c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?this page
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?No won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.