Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9cd6cc75bdf5ccbbd1711e3469087a36692018c8cfe34554aac8cf68488ed33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f0c…fb96backed Yes | 60c | 7,017$4,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 54c | 6,619$3,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,593.86 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…3e9cbacked Yes | 69c | 5,804$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…0799backed No | 43c | 4,103$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed No | 47c | 3,907$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…02ffbacked Yes | 60c | 3,303$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 55c | 3,225$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.12 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 62c | 2,638$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 62c | 2,503$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.37 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 38c | 2,004$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b86…bd28backed Yes | 70c | 1,849$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 65c | 1,772$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.78 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ff…f89bbacked Yes | 72c | 1,670$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 38c | 1,649$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.51 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Yes | 61c | 1,632$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 45c | 1,605$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.95 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 44c | 1,519$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 60c | 1,500$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.1 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 53c | 1,433$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.94 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 47c | 1,410$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.62 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1d…5048backed No | 42c | 1,184$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 63c | 1,123$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 62c | 1,084$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 35c | 903.57$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 58c | 884.39$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 59c | 876.79$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 43c | 730$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 40c | 700$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 46c | 667.62$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 58c | 650$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 48c | 610.35$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 50c | 608.04$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed Yes | 59c | 505.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 36c | 500.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.99 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 53c | 499.86$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7d…91f5backed No | 4c | 466.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 58c | 351.53$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 53c | 338.05$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.05 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 37c | 304.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.07 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 63c | 301.71$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.88 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 38c | 300.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed Yes | 58c | 259.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 56c | 253.23$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.49 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12cb…c3f3backed No | 23c | 240.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 60c | 235$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 45c | 217$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 200$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 33c | 190$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 54c | 184.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 173.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…a73fbacked No | 25c | 165$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 38c | 154$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 45c | 153.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…2082backed No | 24c | 146.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 45c | 139.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…efe9backed Yes | 64c | 126$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418e…6a60backed No | 23c | 119.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 113$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…80cdbacked No | 25c | 107.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 67c | 103.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 58c | 100.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…6374backed No | 25c | 96.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…9334backed Yes | 67c | 89.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc432…091cbacked No | 23c | 89.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 37c | 86.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 49c | 82.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…436bbacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…ed3ebacked Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 20c | 63.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42f7…ee46backed No | 24c | 56.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 55c | 56.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…bdb3backed Yes | 72c | 55.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…3360backed No | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…b0c2backed Yes | 58c | 34.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 74c | 30.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 43c | 24.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9590backed Yes | 74c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad39…0b4ebacked Yes | 70c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b9…f734backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…7cd9backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?this page
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?No won
- Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.