Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc926a9318355136dba7935d6cce30a24fbea383448f074858f7adba2a2d93f29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,288 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61bc…6d0bbacked Yes | 8c | 24,742$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 3c | 8,516$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.04 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 7c | 5,876$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.52 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 8c | 4,875$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.42 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…760dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,900$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,815$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.98 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…d03fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,296$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 1,921$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,514$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd0…855cbacked Yes | 2c | 800.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…9878backed Yes | 2c | 605.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 601.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 2c | 539.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes | 12c | 531.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 499.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…299fbacked Yes | 3c | 452.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 4c | 420.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 7c | 399.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 395.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 29c | 257.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…647abacked Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…a37bbacked Yes | 30c | 163.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…66d2backed Yes | 19c | 111.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2464…44a1backed No | 72c | 99.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 9-15?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 March 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 March 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.