Fifa International · resolved market
Will the third-place match be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x786a97ef5efa94afd94335432157dfd58412f623a1b84c0fbb651042723fa891
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 78c | 998.53$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.28 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…4760backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed No | 72c | 382.25$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 11c | 373$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4b…c81ebacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…0cc8backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 71c | 239.2$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 7c | 192.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 11c | 165.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…4b29backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 28c | 111.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…e5d7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 98.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d9…5ad0backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…8b13backed Yes | 20c | 74.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 65.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ee…cc59backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 72c | 28.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 572 | 52.4%300 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 669 | 32.1%215 W · 454 L | +16.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 73c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the third-place match be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will the third-place match be BEL vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be BEL vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be BEL vs SUI at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be ESP vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will the third-place match be FRA vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be FRA vs SUI at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.