Fifa International · resolved market
Will the third-place match be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80763b8ad165748ed6f78a775826a07667e99796aab0ad59c576ebfaa138b435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 73c | 639.99$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.6 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 562.68$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.6 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…8b13backed No | 79c | 507.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 42c | 501$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.21 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 78c | 464.51$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.27 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 431.92$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.92 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 370$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 10c | 307.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 127 | 9.4%12 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed Yes | 44c | 298.91$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 44c | 295.25$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.34 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 18c | 254.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899f…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 18c | 176.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.91 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 39c | 140.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 36c | 119.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…6ee3backed Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…8767backed No | 35c | 76.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 16c | 75.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 28 | 96.4%27 W · 1 L | +6.6wins | +0.23per pick | 73cpaid | +40%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa64e…5d27backed No | 80c | 55.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…462fbacked Yes | 65c | 54.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 31c | 51.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 22c | 50.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 204 | 27%55 W · 149 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…2900backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…3797backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 32c | 45.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 43c | 33.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed No | 47c | 22.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 383 | 29.8%114 W · 269 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 79c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the third-place match be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will the third-place match be BEL vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be BEL vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be BEL vs SUI at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be ESP vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will the third-place match be FRA vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the third-place match be FRA vs SUI at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.