Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca898084dc338b0ff308d50528234f83fe90497b19a3d18bb148daa3b5e9c24c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 11c | 7,308$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 9c | 3,394$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes | 10c | 2,212$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.2 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 16c | 1,769$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4172…4f3bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,238$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 8c | 1,098$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 12c | 1,037$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…c312backed Yes | 10c | 1,014$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…65febacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 8c | 897.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 8c | 848.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 837.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 9c | 814.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 8c | 800$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 775.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 509.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 503.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 14c | 466.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 10c | 450$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 13c | 376.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed Yes | 11c | 340.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…7999backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…5652backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…46ccbacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 14c | 123.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…9a42backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 9-15?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.