Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dbfab3a92a6a9218b2c8cd98b39c7c1bc5c6ba69e62b5636a52098993c3a7de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $303,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $312,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71cb…b71dbacked No | 0c | 50,050$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c8a3backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4018…cd70backed No | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 56c | 16,560$9,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,317.31 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…a663backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 77c | 12,150$9,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,325.5 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…342cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 59c | 6,694$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,774.58 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…ac35backed Yes | 59c | 6,642$3,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,698.16 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…7b54backed Yes | 60c | 3,963$2,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +211.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 47c | 2,766$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.32 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 70c | 2,756$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.85 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 2,384$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.5 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 66c | 1,460$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.46 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbe…9185backed Yes | 57c | 1,405$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 35c | 1,214$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.8 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 52c | 1,088$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 59c | 1,032$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.52 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 775.73$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 599.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed Yes | 60c | 547.87$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.18 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 60c | 504.27$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.36 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 59c | 474.78$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.52 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…992bbacked Yes | 53c | 473.02$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.02 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 19c | 398.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 32c | 394.2$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.44 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2624…b720backed No | 28c | 380$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Yes | 68c | 365.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes | 74c | 342.76$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c1…01ccbacked Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 43c | 294.26$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 78c | 273.13$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9b…a8e0backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…0951backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…f46fbacked Yes | 73c | 138.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…94f9backed No | 58c | 122$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…97b1backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…45e6backed Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…7121backed No | 44c | 86.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ef…00a4backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed Yes | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…8075backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…8362backed No | 18c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…9fe8backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 51c | 53.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +184.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…2261backed No | 45c | 49.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Yes | 46c | 49.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…a6b7backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…933bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +149%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb384…f253backed Yes | 47c | 39.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed Yes | 51c | 38.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7952…025abacked Yes | 66c | 34.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af4…4752backed No | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1f…6f0ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…e335backed No | 54c | 31.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e00…dc8bbacked No | 55c | 29.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…c3abbacked Yes | 48c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…dab8backed Yes | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…bd1ebacked No | 54c | 26.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…07c7backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…2357backed Yes | 60c | 23.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…8f11backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 9-15?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.