Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x506af5958c05e7f908b7cdc7edd4e35ccc89a60fd16b12ace967bd07946726cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 4c | 37,585$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.19 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 4c | 14,665$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.99 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b9d4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 7c | 6,013$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.32 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 35c | 6,000$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,996$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…0516backed Yes | 5c | 1,880$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +526.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,707$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,185$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 4c | 558.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…299fbacked Yes | 4c | 504.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 5c | 473.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 6c | 441.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 7c | 423.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…3b60backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed Yes | 23c | 212$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…17d3backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 133.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 111.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…0555backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 58c | 76.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2558backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…9ac4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 78c | 49.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 69c | 47.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 70c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…4642backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 9-15?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.