Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e314ad1b74e0e302e2c916de5684b15ca7fc5c7cd51d9c184ab3c094d21ef4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 3c | 20,723$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 14c | 12,953$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 2c | 10,044$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.61 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 10c | 5,857$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.76 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 18c | 5,556$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 27c | 5,204$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.48 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,429$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 76c | 2,376$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.39 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 29c | 2,172$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 1,969$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.05 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 1,945$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3360…955bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 3c | 1,829$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…97b1backed Yes | 7c | 1,821$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.56 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,661$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.26 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 6c | 1,599$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 22c | 1,468$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.99 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…7112backed Yes | 34c | 1,130$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.75 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 2c | 1,098$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,051$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,035$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…5885backed Yes | 28c | 1,011$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…65febacked Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…9de3backed Yes | 23c | 900$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 4c | 703.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 4c | 577.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 42c | 515.63$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.06 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 501.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e1…431dbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 32c | 447$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.04 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1d11backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 75c | 401.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…951bbacked No | 68c | 370$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 6c | 340$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 36c | 310$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a0…8b8cbacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…74e2backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…85d9backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…5971backed Yes | 40c | 210.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…f46fbacked No | 73c | 188.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…058dbacked No | 76c | 168$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…7a1dbacked Yes | 24c | 130$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed Yes | 26c | 118.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…1ba1backed Yes | 23c | 87.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…d39cbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 33c | 77.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e1…704bbacked Yes | 28c | 70.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…a60fbacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef55…53c2backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…2261backed Yes | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7952…025abacked Yes | 33c | 56.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118c…791abacked Yes | 37c | 54.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…5c78backed Yes | 39c | 38.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70eb…635abacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…4680backed No | 76c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 9-15?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.