Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc09a6e289f216d3586e7859aee2e3e434e6abe007121a1daf3b4820a68492c55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 10c | 40,371$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,170.96 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 45c | 33,419$14,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,508.07 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 72c | 26,060$18,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,788.8 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…ac35backed No | 67c | 9,646$6,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,204.13 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x869c…63d5backed Yes | 23c | 4,485$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…9de3backed Yes | 31c | 4,442$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 73c | 4,157$3,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.83 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 4,003$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.25 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 12c | 3,476$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.68 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,173$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes | 5c | 2,555$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 1,939$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.12 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 76c | 1,635$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.81 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c1…01ccbacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,190$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 21c | 1,182$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.49 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 36c | 1,087$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.41 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,060$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.65 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 979.39$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 12c | 979.3$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…79c7backed Yes | 9c | 910$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa28b…55fabacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 35c | 800$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.75 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked Yes | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed No | 77c | 644.71$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.61 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 8c | 629.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…992bbacked No | 68c | 518.33$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.31 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 515.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 9c | 509.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 17c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…1e52backed Yes | 8c | 342.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 37c | 300$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 11c | 284.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 65c | 273.67$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…e475backed Yes | 17c | 231.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Yes | 11c | 230$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…021fbacked Yes | 8c | 224.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…3b60backed Yes | 18c | 194.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bf…2a09backed No | 46c | 194.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 183.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d24…1f77backed Yes | 19c | 158.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…2261backed Yes | 15c | 138.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…0230backed Yes | 17c | 129.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c46…e592backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…058dbacked No | 68c | 124.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf04…34ffbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7041…3077backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…1f74backed No | 69c | 98.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed Yes | 17c | 97.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5166…2676backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef55…53c2backed Yes | 17c | 90.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd0…b077backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…efd8backed Yes | 70c | 59.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe652…d114backed No | 62c | 40.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Yes | 36c | 35.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9da…68debacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…1da2backed Yes | 52c | 26.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52b…7f08backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a11…f8e9backed No | 73c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 9-15?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.