Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa5dbf532833bcc949e4138426e0bc1257709a55d62a01cec8820ccfa12f8bf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $297,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c91…b9d4backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…a3e4backed Yes | 0c | 12,330$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,205$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.61 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…d46dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,624$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…48c4backed Yes | 0c | 6,053$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77b…87f8backed Yes | 1c | 5,821$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe7…9739backed Yes | 2c | 5,463$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…dc0ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,118$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 0c | 4,721$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f0…3578backed Yes | 3c | 3,763$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0b…92efbacked Yes | 3c | 3,642$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…b326backed Yes | 2c | 3,444$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,322$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663c…c8d5backed Yes | 3c | 3,116$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1339…63dabacked Yes | 1c | 2,976$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x016b…e93abacked Yes | 1c | 2,950$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e87…feb7backed Yes | 1c | 2,947$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ae…1cc9backed Yes | 3c | 2,697$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1f…8edbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,533$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,525$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…22c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,249$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…cafdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,185$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,997$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…a065backed Yes | 2c | 1,899$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb296…43c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,572$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f7…4f4dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,294$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76b…dd5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,254$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…23ecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,198$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995d…1f39backed Yes | 3c | 950$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaef…6762backed Yes | 3c | 838.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…9e90backed Yes | 4c | 746.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 9-15?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 9-15?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.