Us Midterms · resolved market
Larger Margin of Victory: Mamdani vs Prop 50?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x793967f68219d20c68db3c1344c912b8861e5ac370090bc37841fc5cbcee9c76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mamdaniof Mamdani, Proposition 50
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $653,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $793,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $653,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Mamdani | 5c | 83,494$4,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,966.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +822.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Proposition 50 | 19c | 46,902$8,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,967.43 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked Proposition 50 | 17c | 21,440$3,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,705.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Mamdani | 75c | 21,308$15,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,339.21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Proposition 50 | 18c | 16,456$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.88 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Proposition 50 | 42c | 12,381$5,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,182.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Mamdani | 9c | 6,652$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,036.93 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Mamdani | 75c | 5,000$3,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Proposition 50 | 15c | 3,727$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.55 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Mamdani | 76c | 3,150$2,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.16 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Mamdani | 38c | 2,981$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.22 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7d…9eb8backed Proposition 50 | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Mamdani | 73c | 2,468$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.77 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…680ebacked Proposition 50 | 0c | 2,434$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Proposition 50 | 9c | 2,044$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.06 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…a4a9backed Proposition 50 | 36c | 1,642$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…434ebacked Proposition 50 | 66c | 1,400$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Proposition 50 | 16c | 1,021$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.56 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Proposition 50 | 14c | 1,011$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.62 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Proposition 50 | 13c | 1,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Mamdani | 78c | 1,000$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Proposition 50 | 17c | 999.93$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Proposition 50 | 12c | 877.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Proposition 50 | 25c | 870.34$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Proposition 50 | 11c | 853.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Proposition 50 | 15c | 670.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Proposition 50 | 12c | 507.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Proposition 50 | 14c | 451.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855b…0eb6backed Mamdani | 4c | 421$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +214.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Mamdani | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…ba7dbacked Mamdani | 18c | 400$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Mamdani | 64c | 314.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…05b4backed Mamdani | 77c | 300.17$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Mamdani | 79c | 263.52$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…293abacked Mamdani | 29c | 212$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Mamdani | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Mamdani | 6c | 185.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.37 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Mamdani | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…16e5backed Mamdani | 75c | 133.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb08a…c850backed Proposition 50 | 79c | 120$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…93d1backed Mamdani | 55c | 100.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Proposition 50 | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Proposition 50 | 25c | 97.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Proposition 50 | 67c | 76.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d2…73c2backed Proposition 50 | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Proposition 50 | 80c | 68.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Mamdani | 27c | 64.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…afd4backed Mamdani | 64c | 62.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Mamdani | 23c | 62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Mamdani | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Mamdani | 25c | 59.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mamdani | 19c | 56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Proposition 50 | 45c | 51.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9128…4470backed Mamdani | 75c | 49.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…7404backed Proposition 50 | 33c | 47.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Proposition 50 | 46c | 47.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Proposition 50 | 80c | 42.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Proposition 50 | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Mamdani | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Proposition 50 | 55c | 36.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Proposition 50 | 77c | 32.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Mamdani | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cf…55cfbacked Proposition 50 | 37c | 29.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Mamdani | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…4a0ebacked Mamdani | 77c | 21.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.