Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eb581f420d6efd4ee520d74e493699ccc1489a86ccf981dc88f2a01d9f1a41c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3080…fa4abacked Yes | 6c | 6,398$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.82 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…3ac7backed Yes | 12c | 6,346$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 5c | 5,978$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…eba2backed Yes | 4c | 5,854$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.71 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0d…1fa6backed Yes | 5c | 4,437$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…5b01backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…f848backed Yes | 8c | 2,969$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.04 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,762$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.21 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,471$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.19 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,373$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,184$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 7c | 1,099$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,024$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 1,021$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 1c | 961.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 722.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 700$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 700$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf653…adfebacked Yes | 4c | 651.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…5c61backed Yes | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 5c | 538$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 8c | 496.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…622fbacked Yes | 7c | 358.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…96fabacked Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 188$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…b572backed Yes | 9c | 165$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…4e5abacked Yes | 12c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c1…732fbacked Yes | 7c | 141.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4a…b12dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 111.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…e265backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 8-14?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 8-14?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 8-14?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 December 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.